Across the publicly disclosed 2025-2026 U.S. federal and EU member-state agentic AI procurements, contract renewals are running materially below the broader enterprise SaaS renewal benchmark — driven primarily by audit-evidence failures under OMB M-24-10 §5 and EU AI Act Article 12, not by technical performance — and the renewal-rate gap is the leading early indicator that public-sector agentic AI is following the Salesforce-for-government 2010s adoption curve, not the cloud-for-government 2015s curve.
Claim created at publish. The causal framing (audit-evidence failures as primary driver) is the durable finding; a specific renewal-rate percentage is not asserted because USAspending.gov data lags 60-120 days behind contract events and agentic AI is not a separately reported procurement category. Evidence base: USAspending.gov contract records, GSA AI Acquisition Resource Center disclosures, Stanford HAI Government AI Tracker, ICO/CNIL/Garante enforcement decisions on public-sector AI logging failures. Review cadence: 60-day, consistent with data-lag reality. Three triggers to Partial: Q3 2026 GSA renewal data showing rates within 5pp of enterprise SaaS benchmark; OMB M-24-10 secondary guidance narrowing §5 scope; named EU supervisory authority enforcement action citing technical-performance (not audit-evidence) failures as primary basis. Sister claims: AM-046 (EU AI Act Article 12 audit-evidence template), AM-138 (vendor MSA renewal post-enforcement checklist), AM-013 (Q1 2026 governance charter gap).
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The claim: Across the publicly disclosed 2025-2026 U.S. federal and EU member-state agentic AI procurements, contract renewals are running materially below the broader enterprise SaaS renewal benchmark — driven primarily by audit-evidence failures under OMB M-24-10 §5 and EU AI Act Article 12, not by technical performance — and the renewal-rate gap is the leading early indicator that public-sector agentic AI is following the Salesforce-for-government 2010s adoption curve, not the cloud-for-government 2015s curve.
About this register
The Reporting register tracks claims published from articles addressed to senior enterprise IT leaders — CIOs, IT directors, heads of platform. Claims are reviewed on a 30–90 day cadence; each review either reaffirms the claim, marks one substantive part as Partial, or marks it Not holding once the underlying evidence has been overtaken.
Recent corrections in Reporting
- AM-003 · Partial · 28 May 2026
Pricing/model drift: a $100/mo Pro tier now sits beside the $200 tier (added 9 Apr 2026) and the premium model is GPT-5.5 Pro. Core thesis holds; the single-$200-tier framing no longer matches. Re-verify current tiers at chatgpt.com/pricing.
- AM-002 · Not holding · 06 May 2026
URL state changed. The /the-agentic-ai-revolution-real-world-success-stories-and-strategic-insights-from-2024-2025/ slug now serves a deliberately rewritten retrospective (claimId AM-130, "Agentic AI 2024-2025 retrospective", published 04 May 2026) against audited primary sources. The 28 Apr 2026 redirect to /retractions/ has been lifted to allow that. AM-002 the claim remains Not holding — the original $3.50/dollar + 70% failure-rate framing was withdrawn and is not restored. AM-130 is a separate claim with its own evidence chain. Readers arriving at /holding/AM-002 see the withdrawal here; the article link surfaces the new piece at the URL the original lived at, with this entry as the audit trail.
- AM-121 · Holding · 2 May 2026
Klarna walk-back primary-source upgrade — added Siemiatkowski verbatim quotes via Bloomberg-cited-by-Fortune (9 May 2025) and the Uber-style freelance hiring detail via Entrepreneur. Closes the highest-priority evidence gap from the source dossier.
Reviews coming up in Reporting
- AM-136 · Holding · next +4d (4 Jun 2026)
Across the 24-month window May 2024 to April 2026, every major foundation-model provider (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, AW…
- AM-020 · Holding · next +18d (18 Jun 2026)
The 40-60% TCO underestimate on enterprise agentic-AI deployments is not a cost-visibility failure — it is a cross-depa…
- AM-023 · Holding · next +18d (18 Jun 2026)
The 10 Apr 2026 Google AI Mode rollout to eight markets is the first vertical (restaurant booking) where agentic search…